The process of democratization poses a significant political challenge in the Middle East, where resistance to democracy and the prevalence of non-democratic regimes persist, presenting an enduring puzzle for academics and professionals. This paper aims to unravel the factors and combinations of conditions that account for the level of (non-) democratization in the MENA region. It investigates whether distinct paths or specific factors influence the democratization process in this region.

To address this question, the paper employs the Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) method, which allows for the identification of combinations of sufficient and necessary conditions that contribute to particular outcomes. The findings highlight that democratization is a complex and multi-causal process. Different factors, including economic, societal, and cultural diversity, exhibit varying impacts on the breakdown of democracy, democratic stability, and democratic transitions.

The QCA results reveal that the influence of various factors depends on their specific combinations within individual countries or groups of countries. Key factors identified in different configurations include the presence of a Muslim population, oil exports, regime type, political globalization, religious fractionalization, and the role of political parties.

By utilizing QCA, this research sheds light on the diverse factors and their interactions that shape the democratization process in the MENA region. The findings emphasize that no single factor alone determines democratization outcomes, underscoring the need for a nuanced understanding of the complex dynamics at play. These insights contribute to the scholarly understanding of democratization and offer valuable guidance for policymakers and practitioners seeking to foster democratic reforms in the Middle East.

Authors: Mohammad Aghdam & Abdalhadi Alijla